Israel's Foreign Relations with Saudi Arabia: The Potential for Normalization

Israel's Foreign Relations with Saudi Arabia: The Potential for Normalization

Introduction

The Middle East is a region marked by a complex tapestry of political alliances, religious affiliations, and geopolitical interests. Among the most intriguing developments in recent years has been the shift in the dynamics between Israel and several Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia. For decades , Israel and Saudi Arabia had no formal diplomatic ties, largely due to the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, recent events suggest that normalization of relations between these two regional powers is not only possible but increasingly likely. The potential for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia carries significant implications, not only for the two countries but for the broader Middle East and international relations.

Historical Context: The Arab-Israeli Conflict and Saudi Arabia's Role

Saudi Arabia has traditionally been one of the staunchest supporters of the Palestinian cause in the Arab world. Since Israel's founding in 1948 and the subsequent Arab-Israeli wars, Saudi Arabia has maintained a firm stance against normalization with Israel. This opposition was driven by several factors, including religious solidarity with the Palestinians, leadership aspirations in the Arab world, and a desire to prevent regional instability.

 

Saudi Arabia's role in the Arab-Israeli conflict became particularly pronounced with the Arab League's adoption of the "Three No's" at the Khartoum Summit in 1967: no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, and no negotiations with Israel. This framework dominated Arab -Israeli relations for decades. Furthermore, in 2002, Saudi Arabia spearheaded the Arab Peace Initiative, which proposed full normalization between Arab states and Israel, contingent upon the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. This initiative underscored Saudi Arabia's commitment to the Palestinian cause while keeping the door open to future normalization under certain conditions.

Shifting Geopolitical Landscape: Iran's Influence and Regional Realignments

In recent years, however, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has shifted dramatically, paving the way for new alliances and partnerships. The most significant of these shifts has been the rise of Iran as a regional power, with its influence spreading across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen through its support of various militias and proxy groups. Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-majority nation, views Shiite-majority Iran as its primary geopolitical rival. This rivalry, often described as a "Cold War" within the Middle East, has played a pivotal role in reshaping the region's alliances.

Israel, too, sees Iran as its primary threat, particularly due to Tehran's nuclear ambitions and its support for groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. This shared concern over Iran's growing influence has brought Israel and Saudi Arabia closer in terms of strategic interests , even if their cooperation has remained largely behind the scenes. The maxim "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" has never been more relevant in the context of Israel-Saudi relations.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, further underscored the convergence of Israeli and Saudi interests. Both countries opposed the deal, although for different agreement reasons. Israel feared that the would eventually allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, while Saudi Arabia was concerned that it would embolden Iran's regional activities. The deal's eventual collapse under the Trump administration, coupled with the US's gradual pivot away from the Middle East, left Israel and Saudi Arabia seeking new avenues for cooperation.

The Abraham Accords: A New Dawn for Arab-Israeli Relations

A major milestone in the shift toward normalization between Israel and Arab states was the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020. These agreements, brokered by the United States under the Trump administration, saw the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain normalize relations with Israel Later, Sudan and Morocco followed suit. These agreements were groundbreaking, as they represented the first time in decades that Arab nations had formally recognized Israel without a resolution to the Palestinian issue.

While Saudi Arabia did not officially join the Abraham Accords, it played a behind-the-scenes role in facilitating the agreements. The kingdom allowed Israeli commercial flights to pass through its airspace, a significant gesture of goodwill. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia refrained from criticizing the UAE and Bahrain for normalizing ties with Israel, signaling a softening of its position on the issue.

The Abraham Accords demonstrated that the Arab world's traditional "Palestinian first" approach to relations with Israel was beginning to shift. While the Palestinian cause remains important, other factors—such as economic interests, technological cooperation, and security concerns—are increasingly driving Arab- Israeli relations. Saudi Arabia's muted response to the Abraham Accords suggests that it, too, may be considering a recalibration of its foreign policy toward Israel.

Saudi Arabia's Domestic Considerations

Normalization with Israel, however, is not just a matter of foreign policy for Saudi Arabia; it is also a domestic issue. Saudi Arabia's leadership must carefully navigate public opinion, which has historically been hostile to Israel due to the Palestinian issue and broader Arab- Israeli tensions. While younger generations in the kingdom may be more open to normalization, many older Saudis and religious conservatives remain deeply opposed.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has been instrumental in driving forward a series of sweeping reforms under his Vision 2030 initiative. This ambitious plan seeks to diversify the Saudi economy, reduce its dependence on oil, and modernize various sectors, including education, entertainment, and tourism. As part of this broader modernization effort, MBS has sought to portray Saudi Arabia as a more moderate and progressive state. Normalizing ties with Israel could align with this vision by opening up new avenues for economic cooperation, technological exchange, and regional stability.

 

However, MBS must also contend with the conservative religious establishment and segments of the population who may view normalization with Israel as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and Islamic values. Balancing these domestic considerations with geopolitical and economic interests will be a critical challenge for the Saudi leadership.

The Role of the United States

The United States has historically played a central role in Arab-Israeli relations, and this remains true in the context of Israel-Saudi normalization. Washington has been a key player in brokering peace agreements between Israel and its neighbors, from the Camp David Accords with Egypt in 1978 to the Abraham Accords in 2020. The US has also been a close ally of both Israel and Saudi Arabia, providing military and economic support to both nations.

Under the Biden administration, there has been continued interest in fostering normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, although the approach has been more cautious compared to the Trump administration's aggressive push for the Abraham Accords. The US sees normalization as a way to strengthen regional stability, counter Iran's influence, and secure its own strategic interests in the Middle East.

However, the Biden administration has also emphasized the importance of addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as part of any broader normalization efforts. This presents a challenge, as Saudi Arabia has historically conditioned normalization on a resolution to the Palestinian issue. Whether the US can balance These competing priorities—normalization and the Palestinian question—remains to be seen.

Economic and technological cooperation

One of the most compelling arguments for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is the potential for economic and technological cooperation. Israel is a global leader in innovation, particularly in fields such as cybersecurity, water management, agriculture, and healthcare. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is the largest economy in the Arab world and has significant financial resources thanks to its vast oil reserves.

By normalizing ties, Israel and Saudi Arabia could unlock significant economic potential, benefiting both countries and the broader region. Israeli technology could play a key role in helping Saudi Arabia achieve its Vision 2030 goals, particularly in areas such as renewable energy, water conservation, and smart cities. offline, Saudi Arabia's financial investments could help fuel Israel's tech sector and other industries.

Moreover, normalization could facilitate greater regional integration, including trade, investment, and tourism. The Abraham Accords have already demonstrated the economic benefits of normalization, with Israeli businesses expanding into the UAE and vice versa. A similar dynamic could unfold between Israel and Saudi Arabia , potentially transforming the economic landscape of the Middle East.

Obstacles to Normalization

Despite the growing momentum toward normalization, several obstacles remain. The most significant of these is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While Saudi Arabia has softened its position on normalization, it has not abandoned its support for the Palestinian cause. Riyadh has consistently reiterated that any normalization with Israel must be accompanied by a just solution to the Palestinian issue, in line with the Arab Peace Initiative.

Another obstacle is public opinion within Saudi Arabia and the broader Arab world. While governments may be more open to normalization, public sentiment remains largely pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel. The Saudi leadership will need to carefully manage these sentiments to avoid backlash.

Finally, there is the issue of regional stability. Iran, Hezbollah, and other actors opposed to normalization may seek to disrupt any potential agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia through proxy conflicts or other means. Managing these security challenges will require careful diplomacy and coordination with international partners, particularly the United States.

 

Conclusion: A Gradual Path to Normalization

The potential for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia represents a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Driven by shared concerns over Iran, economic interests, and a changing regional landscape, the two countries are inching closer to formal diplomatic ties. However, several challenges remain , including the Palestinian issue, domestic public opinion, and regional security dynamics.

While full normalization may not happen overnight, the trajectory is clear. Incremental steps, such as continued cooperation on security and economic issues, could pave the way for a formal agreement in the future. For both Israel and Saudi Arabia, normalization offers the promise of enhanced security, economic prosperity, and a more stable regional order. However, achieving this goal will require careful diplomacy, both between the two countries and with key international players such as the United States.